tachyon-beep

Counterfactual Statistics — AI skill for Claude Code

AI community

Statistics for counterfactual and paired-branch ML experiments - the independent unit, paired tests against a no-op anchor, grouped splits, winner's curse, abstention calibration, pre-registration, an.

How to install Counterfactual Statistics

Installs to ~/.claude/commands/tachyon-beep-skillpacks-counterfactual-statistics.md

Terminal

mkdir -p ~/.claude/commands && curl -fsSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/tachyon-beep/skillpacks/HEAD/.claude/commands/counterfactual-statistics.md -o ~/.claude/commands/tachyon-beep-skillpacks-counterfactual-statistics.md

Restart Claude Code, or start a new session, for it to be picked up.

What Counterfactual Statistics does

description: Statistics for counterfactual and paired-branch ML experiments - the independent unit, paired tests against a no-op anchor, grouped splits, winner's curse, abstention calibration, pre-registration, and reliability reporting

Counterfactual Statistics Routing

**The independent unit is the run you forked, not the branch you forked it into.** Branches bought you precision, not sample size — nearly every failure in this domain follows from forgetting that, and the rest from c

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