Counterfactual Statistics

Description

--- description: Statistics for counterfactual and paired-branch ML experiments - the independent unit, paired tests against a no-op anchor, grouped splits, winner's curse, abstention calibration, pre-registration, and reliability reporting --- # Counterfactual Statistics Routing **The independent unit is the run you forked, not the branch you forked it into.** Branches bought you precision, not sample size — nearly every failure in this domain follows from forgetting that, and the rest from c

Installation

Installs to ~/.claude/commands/tachyon-beep-skillpacks-counterfactual-statistics.md

Restart Claude Code, or start a new session, for it to be picked up.