Skills for Decision Making

Agent skills built from Algorithms for Decision Making.

Most business advice is vibes in a confident tone.
This is the arithmetic underneath it.

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Your agent already gives confident business advice. It will tell you to run the A/B test, match the competitor's price cut, and kill the product with no conversions. Sometimes that advice is right. You cannot tell which times, because there is no number under it.

These eight skills put the number under it.

> The team wants three weeks to build a churn prediction model.
  It flags at-risk accounts with 92% accuracy. Worth it?

**Value of information: zero.** Not low. Zero.

You already send the retention email to everyone in the at-risk segment, and the email costs nothing, so emailing everyone is already the optimal action. There is no prediction the model could return that changes what you do, and an observation that cannot change the action has no value however accurate it is. The 92% is doing rhetorical work, not decision work.

This becomes worth building the day the retention action has a real per-customer cost, because then you have to choose who to spend it on. Test that first: it i